The coming midterm elections should be good for Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats in the House of Representatives. However to get control of the chamber they need more than a good year. They need a wave year.
So let’s look at the polls, and see whether a wave looks likely. Remember: the 2016 polls correctly predicted that Hillary Clinton got more votes than Donald Trump.
Let’s first look at the popular vote in the big wave years. In 2010, Republicans beat Democrats 52-45 (R+7) to gain 63 seats. In 2008, Democrats beat Republicans 53-43 (D+10) to gain 21 more seats over 2006. In 2006, Democrats won 52-44 (D+8) to gain 31 seats and control. In 1994, Republicans won 52-45 (R+7) to gain 54 seats and control.
In other years, the results vary. The R+1 2016 resulted in Nancy Pelosi’s side gaining 6 seats, while the D+1 2012 netted the Democrats 8 seats, but